We are very disappointed that the US tariff rate on NZ goods exports will be increased to 15% effective in 7 days, as announced in a Presidential Order this morning. This is terrible news for New Zealand goods exporters to the USA. Details are available here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/07/further-modifying-the-reciprocal-tariff-rates/
Earlier this week, prior to the latest US tariff announcement, the NZUS Council was pleased to host Nick Tuffley, Chief Economist at ASB, for a virtual briefing on the United States’ evolving economic and trade environment. With tariffs, monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainty reshaping global markets, the discussion offered timely insights for New Zealand businesses engaged with the US.
Tuffley outlined how shifts in US trade policy, particularly the reintroduction of widespread tariffs, are contributing to an uncertain global outlook. While the US remains a key destination for New Zealand goods and services, the return to more protectionist settings poses a real challenge for New Zealand goods exporters. In addition to the direct impact of tariffs, the indirect effects on supply and demand in other markets are another significant variable for exporters to consider.
Despite recent market volatility, US equities have rebounded strongly, buoyed by investor expectations of eventual rate cuts. However, questions remain around inflation pressures, the future of interest rates, and the independence of the Federal Reserve, all of which are likely to shape market sentiment ahead of the 2026 mid-term congressional elections.
The discussion also touched on the strategic implications of growing global fragmentation, including the pressure on countries to diversify trade relationships beyond both the US and China.
Council members appreciated the opportunity to hear directly from one of New Zealand’s most respected economic commentators. The NZUS Council thanks Nick Tuffley and ASB for supporting this important dialogue. We look forward to continuing the conversation on how New Zealand can navigate the changing global trade landscape.
You can watch the full session on our YouTube channel.