NZUS Council Executive Director Fiona Cooper
Remarks to University of the Third Age (U3A) Christchurch
Monday 29th July 2024
Tēnā koutou katoa,
Thank you, David, good morning everyone.
Thank you for the invitation to speak with you today. I am delighted to be back in my hometown.
David has asked me to speak about the US Presidential Election which will take place on November 5th this year.
This has not been an easy speech to write because the US political situation has evolved incredibly quickly and unexpectedly over the last few weeks and even days.
Before I get to the election, I will talk about the current state of relations between New Zealand and the USA and why their elections matter to us. Then I’ll get onto the Presidential election and what it might mean for New Zealand.
First, I should say a quick word about the New Zealand United States Council. We are a non-partisan and non-government organisation. We are focused on advancing New Zealand’s interests in a strong bilateral relationship with America.
We are funded by business, academia, and government. We communicate the importance of the bilateral relationship (as I hope to do for you today), provide platforms to advance opportunities for New Zealanders with the USA, and build supportive constituencies for New Zealand in the US.
I rejoined the Council as Executive Director on 1 March this year, having held this role a few years ago. US politics is so important and exciting that I couldn’t stay away.
The bilateral relationship
The bilateral relationship between New Zealand and the USA is in excellent shape. At the official level, New Zealand places a high value on the relationship with the USA.
We share a strong friendship – based on shared values and interests and a commitment to promoting a free, democratic, secure and prosperous world.
The issues that divided us in 1980s and 1990s are now firmly in the rearview mirror. The relationship was fully normalised with two key bilateral agreements signed in 2010 and 2011, known as the Wellington Declaration and the Washington Declaration, and it’s been onwards and upwards since then.
These days New Zealand and the USA collaborate in a wide range of areas, from foreign policy, trade, defence and security to police matters, immigration, Customs and increasingly science, innovation, technology and the space sector.
This has really taken New Zealand’s relationship with the USA to a new and exciting level.
The US is also one of our most important trading partners. The US is now our second largest export market after China and our third largest trading partner (when you count both exports and imports). And the US is our second largest source of foreign investment after Australia.
As good as the economic relationship is, there is still plenty of upside opportunity. It is an enduring source of disappointment to the Council that America is the only one of our top ten trading partners with which New Zealand does not have a free trade agreement. Imagine how much closer our relationship would be if we had one!
The New Zealand Government has demonstrated that it is committed to further strengthening the relationship with the USA.
Foreign Minister Winston Peters visited Washington DC in April to meet with the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. They agreed for the first time to meet annually to discuss foreign policy matters. That is a sure sign that the US recognises that New Zealand is a willing and able partner with many shared interests in the Indo-Pacific region and in world affairs more generally.
Minister Judith Collins also visited the US in April, in her capacity as Minister of Space. Space is a relatively new and promising area of collaboration with the USA, thanks to the rise of Rocket Lab and other innovative New Zealand companies in the aerospace sector, some of which are based here in Christchurch.
Prime Minister Luxon’s visit to Washington DC earlier this month for the NATO Summit was highly successful at the political level. He met President Biden at the White House Dinner for NATO Leaders and met with several Members of Congress on both the Republican and Democrat sides to discuss matters of common interest such as Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza conflict.
His visit was a vital opportunity to strengthen American bipartisan support for the relationship with New Zealand. This has helped to put New Zealand in the best possible position to defend and advance our national interests with whichever party wins the US elections in November.
Recent Dramatic Events
I visited Washington DC six weeks ago and met with a wide range of contacts from the business community, Congress and the Administration. My goal was to get a sense of the political outlook in the lead up to the Presidential and congressional elections, and the potential implications for New Zealand.
At that time, according to a Pew Research Centre survey, Presidents Biden and Trump were the least-liked pair of presidential candidates in at least three decades. Many voters were either undecided or apathetic, turned off from politics.
There was speculation that a third candidate, such as Robert F. Kennedy Junior, could attract many of those disaffected votes and play a spoiling role for both candidates.
Also, during my visit, most people I met told me privately they thought President Trump would win in a tight race against President Biden.
I certainly could not have predicted six week ago all the things that have happened since that have dramatically changed the nature of this election.
You have probably heard the expression “a black swan event” to describe high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations. Well we have seen multiple black swan events in US politics of late.
First there was the televised Presidential debate on 27th June which raised questions about President Biden’s capacity to do the job for another four years and his ability to take on his opponent and win at the ballot box in November.
There were also concerns that his perceived weakness could affect other Democrats in Congress who are up for election in November and the possibility that the Republicans could gain control of the Senate as well as retaining control of the House of Representatives.
Two weeks later, on 13th July, there was the shocking assassination attempt on former President Trump which sadly took the life of one of his supporters and injured two others. A few days later he was resoundingly confirmed as the Republican Party nominee at their National Convention in Wisconsin.
Then just 8 days ago, President Biden bowed to mounting public and private pressure from within his own party and withdrew his candidacy. He quickly endorsed his Vice President, Kamala Harris, to be the Democratic nominee for the US Presidency.
I definitely did not see that coming six weeks ago!
President Biden is the first US President in 56 years to drop out of a bid to win a second term, and no sitting President in US history has dropped out of a race so late in the election cycle.
President Biden’s momentous decision has set the stage for a turbulent and unpredictable political campaign unlike any other in recent times.
Vice President Harris, and any other contenders for the Democratic nomination (although at this point it does not look like there will be any others) have only a few weeks to choose a running mate for the role of Vice President and earn the backing of the nearly 4000 delegates to the Democratic National Convention which will take place in Chicago from the 19th to 22nd August.
After that Convention, the Democratic nominee will only have about 100 days before the election to establish herself in the minds of American voters as a credible alternative to her competitor, former President Donald Trump.
And in the meantime former President Trump and his new Vice Presidential candidate JD Vance, are already out on the campaign trail.
It has been an extraordinary turn of events and a huge spectacle.
So what does it all mean for New Zealand?
Why does the US election matter?
The US election matters to New Zealand because we have important interests at stake. Like any other important international leader, the policies of the US President can have a bearing on the global environment in which we operate.
As we saw at the NATO Summit earlier this month, the US plays a critical role as a convenor and defender of democratic countries. The US is also an important security broker with the military assets needed to maintain a balance of power in our region and beyond.
It is not our job to judge who the US should choose as their next President. That is a matter entirely for the American people.
What we need to do is assess the policies of the candidates and think about the implications for New Zealand, based on our interests in having a safe secure and prosperous world and preserving, and ideally advancing, our trade and investment relationships.
What are some of the election issues?
The issues that matter to us, which are primarily international in nature, for example trade, foreign policy and security policy, are unlikely to define the outcomes of the US election.
For Americans, or at least this was the case when I visited six weeks ago, the key issues in this election are primarily domestic – the economy, immigration and abortion rights.
Although the US economy is growing, and the inflation rate is coming down, elevated inflation and interest rates continue to weigh on American households, and many Americans feel they are less well off now than they were before the COVID19 pandemic. There is also widespread concern about illegal immigration across the political divide. And abortion remains hugely controversial since the Supreme Court overturned Roe vs Wade a couple of years ago.
So let’s have a look at the policies of the two leading contenders, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, and particularly the policies that matter to New Zealand.
Vice President Kamala Harris is California’s former Attorney-General and Senator, who if elected in November, would become the first female president in the country’s history, as well as its first Asian-American president.
When she campaigned to be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020, she was aligned with the progressive wing of the Democratic party. She championed abortion rights, student debt relief and a bold agenda to combat climate change including massive investment in clean sources of energy. These are likely to remain important themes for her and will clearly differentiate her from President Trump.
Vice President Harris has not been a strong supporter of free trade. As a Senate candidate in 2016 she opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Agreement on environmental and labour grounds and later voted against other US trade agreements such as the US Mexico Canada Agreement.
She once said that “in a Harris administration, there would be no trade deal that would be signed unless it protected American workers and it protected our environment.”
New Zealand has already entered in trade agreements that have strong environmental and labour provisions, so perhaps this could be an opportunity for us in the future.
But unfortunately free trade is still a dirty word in US politics these days, and protectionist sentiments prevail across both political parties.
Perhaps the most we could expect would be for Vice President Harris to complete President Biden’s main trade policy initiative, the Indo Pacific Economic Framework (or IPEF) of which New Zealand is a member.
The IPEF addresses future-focused economic issues such as the digital economy, de-carbonising our economies and improving supply chain resilience. That is useful but it falls short of offering any new market access to the participants.
As Vice President, Kamala Harris has not had a high profile on foreign policy matters. It seems likely that she would follow in President Biden’s footsteps as a supporter of the international rules based system, defender of democratic principles and opponent of territorial aggression, and remain committed to the NATO security arrangement.
She has been critical of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and is likely to take a harder line with Israel on how they conduct their war against Hamas. That would play well with the progressive wing of the Democratic party and with younger voters, many of whom took part in major University protests a couple of months ago against President Biden’s inability to restrain Israel’s actions in Gaza.
Vice President Harris has not said much about China so far but there has been no suggestion that she would shrink from standing up to China on trade, industrial policy and security matters.
On balance, on the issues of primary interest to New Zealand, my guess is that Vice President Harris would probably not stray far from the status quo under President Biden.
In former President Trump, we have seen what his priorities were in his first Administration and have some sense of what his priorities would be if given a second term.
President Trump and his running mate JD Vance are sceptical about multilateral institutions and the rules-based international order on which small countries like New Zealand depend.
They will be wary of getting involved in other people’s wars and will be less inclined to spend money in defence of other countries including Ukraine. President Trump has long called for other countries to step up and spend more on defence.
President Trump is also a climate sceptic and a strong supporter of domestic fossil fuel producers, some of which are located in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania and JD Vance’s home state of Ohio.
President Trump has demonstrated that he is a mercantilist who seeks to increase America’s prosperity and power through restrictive trade practices. He is a big fan of import tariffs and believes other countries will be willing to pay additional tariffs in order to maintain access to the large and lucrative US market.
This flies in the face of the World Trade Organisation’s rules and would put the world trading system in an uproar. Nonetheless, he has promised to impose a 60% tariff on all imports from China. He imposed some tariffs on China in his first term and plans to go further if given the opportunity.
President Trump has also talked about imposing a global 10% tariff on imports of goods from all other countries. What we don’t yet now is how he would implement it.
It could be a blanket policy that would capture New Zealand as well as everyone else. But there would be huge opposition from American companies which use imports in their manufacturing processes and from US consumers already worried about inflation.
So perhaps he would be more selective in how he applies the tariff. Perhaps he would exempt certain countries and/or certain products.
Or perhaps he would exempt countries with which the US has a free trade agreement, such as Australia, which would give our close friends across the ditch a competitive edge over New Zealand exporters.
Perhaps he would focus on countries that have a large trade surplus with the USA. New Zealand has a very small trade surplus with the US so are unlikely to be a high priority, but we would need to be prepared to advocate on that point should the need arise.
Or perhaps he will focus on those countries which he perceives to be a threat to the USA in which case New Zealand should be ok.
There is no doubt that President Trump’s tariff policy is a potential risk for New Zealand and America’s other trading partners. We don’t know how the tariff would be implemented but we are giving it serious thought so that we are prepared to respond should the need arise.
One bit of good news however is that President Trump likes doing deals. He entered into trade agreements during his first term and may choose to do so again.
So while the prospects for New Zealand to achieve a Free Trade Agreement with the US under President Trump are low, they are not quite at zero. We would need to be nimble and keep our eyes open for opportunities to advance our trade and investment interests.
The US electoral system
I should also say a quick word about the US voting system as it is quite different to ours.
The two candidates will want to attract as much of the popular vote across the country as they can. But the voters alone do not decide the election. The role of US Electoral College is pivotal.
There are 538 Electors in total. Each state has a group of Electors, the size of that group is the same as the number of members of congress representing that state in Washington DC.
Each elector represents one electoral vote, and a candidate needs to gain a majority of the votes – that is, 270 or more – to win the presidency.
Generally, states award all their electoral college votes to whichever Presidential candidate wins the poll of ordinary voters in the state.
For example, according to the BBC’s helpful guide on the US electoral process, if a candidate wins 50.1% of the vote in Texas, they are awarded all of the state’s 40 electoral votes. Alternatively, a candidate could win by a landslide in that state and still pick up the same number of electoral votes.
It’s therefore possible for a candidate to become president by winning a number of tight races in certain states, despite having fewer votes across the country.
And that is why the so called battleground states are so important. This year there are six key battleground states that the candidates must win in order to win the election. These so called “swing states”, which are neither solidly red (Republican) or blue (Democrat), are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
President Trump won most of them in 2016. President Biden won all of them in 2020. These will be very tightly fought contests this year.
What is the outlook for the election?
I am not foolish enough to attempt to predict the outcome of the Presidential Election. At this point it is shaping up to be a very tight race indeed.
After the Presidential debate in late June, the polls showed President Trump opening up a significant lead over President Biden of around 6 per cent.
However, the President’s decision to withdraw his candidacy has been a real game changer. In the last week since President Biden withdrew and endorsed Kamala Harris to be his successor, the polling gap narrowed to just 1% according to a New York Times report on Friday. That is well within the margin of error.
Further poll results from Fox News just yesterday confirmed how tight the race is. According to a poll of registered voters in some of the swing states showed:
- In Michigan and Pennsylvania they are tied on 49% each.
- In Minnesota Vice President Harris is up by 6% on 52% to President Trump’s 46%.
- In Wisconsin, President Trump is up by 1% over Harris on 50% to her 49%.
Effectively the race is neck and neck at this point. But who knows what will happen over the next three months?
There are still procedural hoops to be jumped through. Vice President Harris needs to be confirmed as the official nominee at the Democratic Convention.
After that, things will really heat up. It will be an intense and spirited race to the November election.
If Vice President Harris can convince voters in the key swing states that abortion rights are the most important issue, then she could win. If President Trump can convince those voters that immigration is the most important issue, then he could win.
Who knows what other Black Swan events may be in store? We shall have to wait and see.
But we need not just be passive observers of this mighty contest.
The NZUS Council will be using the next few months to marshal our arguments in preparation to promote and defend our interests should that be required once the Presidential race has been decided.
So whatever the outcome of the election, we will be ready.
Thank you for your attention.